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How to view the growth of glass fiber demand?

Glass fiber is a kind of inorganic nonmetal material with excellent performance, which has a wide range of applications. Glass fiber downstream demand includes building materials, transportation (automobile, etc.), industrial equipment, electronics (PCB) and wind power, accounting for 34%, 27%, 15%, 16% and 8%. Compared with steel, aluminum and other metal materials, glass fiber has the advantages of light weight and high strength. Compared with carbon fiber, glass fiber has the advantages of high cost performance and high specific modulus.

Glass fiber as an alternative material, product innovation and new applications are constantly found, the life cycle is still in the stage of continuous growth, and the production and sales keep higher than the growth rate of GDP.

How to view the growth of glass fiber demand?

Technological progress and cost reduction bring about long-term growth. Technological progress is reflected in the extension of high added value and the expansion of single line scale, and further brings about the improvement of revenue level and the decrease of cost.

Continuous technological progress: functional glass fiber with special properties such as high strength, high modulus, low dielectric, high temperature resistance, insulation and corrosion resistance is breaking through the technical bottleneck, and its application fields will be further expanded. New automobile, new energy (wind power), shipbuilding, aircraft, high-speed railway and highway, anti-corrosion, environmental protection and other fields will become new growth points of glass fiber industry, Especially thermoplastic yarn and wind power yarn. For example, Jushi E9 glass fiber will be launched in August 2020, and the ultimate length of all glass fiber blade is expected to be increased from 85 meters to 90-100 meters, which will further replace carbon fiber and other materials to meet the needs of large-scale and marine wind power application scenarios.

Cost continues to decline: the core lies in the single line scale and process technology improvement, which is manifested in the large-scale and intelligent tank kiln, large leak plate processing, new glass formula, high-quality sizing agent and waste wire recycling.

It is estimated that in the next few years, the growth rate of global glass fiber production will still be higher than that of GDP (according to historical data, the growth rate of glass fiber production / GDP = 2.7). We are optimistic about the demand of automobile, electronics, wind power, US real estate and other fields.

1. The automotive industry continues to recover, and the penetration rate of new materials is expected to increase: under the stricter automotive environmental protection and energy saving policies, new energy and lightweight become important paths for automotive emission reduction, energy saving and consumption reduction, both of which bring significant improvement in the application field and penetration rate of glass fiber. At the same time, the auto industry is in the process of recovery, which will drive the increase of purchase orders involving glass fiber.

2. The rapid development of PCB industry brings market opportunities, and in recent years, data center and 5g equipment put forward higher requirements for upstream electronic yarn (cloth).

3. The high business cycle of wind power is expected to continue: in 2021, onshore wind power will enter the era of parity, and the growth of wind power demand in the future will mainly depend on the decline of power cost, and wind power will develop to large capacity, long blade and high tower. According to the data of China Jushi 2020 annual report, at present, 1 gigawatt wind turbine blade needs about 10000 tons of glass fiber. With the increasing capacity of wind turbine, the wind turbine blades are becoming larger and larger, and the amount of glass fiber required for each MW wind turbine blade is increasing, which is good for the long-term demand of glass fiber products for wind power.

4. Real estate resonance at home and abroad brings the expectation of stock replenishment: glass fiber reinforced building materials have high strength, low weight, multi-purpose, more applications abroad, but low market share at home, so the market prospect is huge.


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